The United States is facing a significant decline in international visitors, as anger over the Trump administration’s tariffs, rhetoric, and travel policies is expected to take a toll on the tourism industry.
Forecasts from Tourism Economics predict a 9.4% drop in arrivals this year – nearly double the previous estimate of 5% made in February. This downturn is expected to result in a staggering US$9 billion loss in spending from foreign travellers, affecting airlines, hotels, national parks, and other tourism-dependent businesses. While international arrivals were nearing pre-pandemic levels, analysts now predict it could take until 2029 for figures to fully recover.
This is worrisome for inbound tourism to the US, which is set to host the majority of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The US may struggle to attract the surge of visitors that previous host countries have enjoyed amid growing discontent among international travellers toward the Trump administration.
The impact of tariffs on travel
The Trump administration’s tariffs and trade policies, which were intended to reduce the trade deficit, are having unintended consequences on tourism.
Canada, a key source market for US tourism, is expected to reduce travel to the US by 20% this year. The US Travel Association warns that even a 10% decline in Canadian visitors could result in two million fewer trips, resulting in US$2.1 billion in lost revenue, and 14,000 job losses.
Air Canada has already reported a 10% drop in bookings to the US for the April-September period compared to last year, reinforcing concerns about the broader economic impact.
A new travel ban in the works?
In addition to economic measures, the Trump administration is considering reinstating and expanding travel restrictions. A draft proposal circulating among officials suggests that citizens from up to 43 countries could face entry bans or visa restrictions.
The proposed ‘red list’ includes 11 nations – such as Afghanistan, Cuba, Iran, and North Korea – where travel to the US would be entirely prohibited. Meanwhile, travellers from Russia, Pakistan, and Myanmar, among others, could see visas sharply restricted under an ‘orange list’ policy. A ‘yellow list’ of 22 countries has been given a 60-day window to address security concerns or risk further restrictions.
This move follows Trump’s first-term travel bans, which were partially blocked by courts but later upheld in revised form by the Supreme Court. If enacted, these new restrictions could further dampen international interest in visiting the US, particularly from emerging markets.
Tougher immigration policies deter visitors
Alongside travel bans, stricter immigration enforcement is raising concerns among foreign visitors. Several countries – including the UK, Germany, Denmark, and Canada – have updated travel advisories warning citizens about the risks of detainment or deportation, even for those with valid visas.
Germany has flagged that minor visa overstays or past criminal records could lead to deportation, while Denmark and Finland have expressed concerns for transgender and nonbinary travellers due to US immigration forms only recognising male and female genders.
Recent high-profile incidents highlight the growing uncertainty surrounding US border policies. A French scientist was reportedly deported after officials deemed messages on his phone critical of US policies as ‘hateful’. Meanwhile, a Welsh backpacker was detained in a prison-like facility for 19 days for allegedly violating her tourist visa by bartering for accommodation.