Chinese travel agents are optimistic about the outbound travel market in 2025, fuelled by favourable economic conditions, rising disposable income, and simplified visa processes.

These were some of the main findings highlighted during a recent webinar hosted by marketing solutions provider Dragon Trail International. It presented the results of a survey carried out in December 2024, featuring responses from more than 450 participants who are actively selling outbound travel for mainland Chinese travel agencies.

Market recovery expectations

Positive recovery outlook

• 57% of respondents believe the Chinese outbound travel market will return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2025.

• 22% anticipate full recovery by 2026.

Regional recovery projections:

• Asia (excluding the Middle East) is expected to experience the most significant recovery in international tourism from China.

• Europe also shows promise, with 60% of respondents expecting recovery by the end of this year.

• North America recovery is viewed cautiously, with a focus on increased spending by Chinese tourists outpacing visitor arrivals.

• Recovery for Africa and Latin America is expected to take more time.

Consumer confidence

Chinese travel agents remain optimistic about the economy and consumers’ buying power:

Positive influences

• 71% of respondents believe China’s economic environment will positively impact outbound travel.

• 68% express similar optimism regarding consumer confidence.

Travel costs

• 45% view travel costs as a negative factor, indicating competitive pricing remains critical to attracting travellers.

Drivers of travel demand

Visa simplifications: Visa-free or simplified processes are driving demand, especially for destinations in East Asia and Southeast Asia due to their proximity and cultural similarities.

Niche destinations: Niche destinations and off-the-beaten-path experiences are increasingly popular among Chinese travellers.

Silver travel: The survey identified silver travel as a vast untapped market for travel agents, offering significant growth opportunities.

Destinations with potential: Destinations with exotic landscapes and well-developed economies are seen as having strong growth potential.

Challenges in destination choices

The survey also highlighted that the biggest challenge in terms of destination choice was identified as international politics, geopolitical tensions and heightened safety risks.

Despite challenges, the outlook for Chinese outbound travel in 2025 is bright, with significant opportunities for destinations and travel agents that can cater to evolving traveller preferences and maintain competitive pricing.

"Chinese travel agents singled out overseas destinations with exotic landscapes and well-developed economies as those with potential for growth," said Janice Meng, market research analyst at Dragon Trail International.